It is a shocker – Aftonbladet

It is a shocker – Aftonbladet

In just 76 hours, the gap between the Alliance and the three red-green parties more than halved.

valspurten becomes sick exciting.

Almost as Anything can happen.

last poll from Aftonbladet / United Minds was delivered on Friday afternoon. The measurement we publish today was completed just after 18 last night.

In just 76 hours, there have been considerable changes. The biggest is that the differences between the support for the Alliance’s four parties and the three red-green parties have fallen by more than half. Last Friday was the gap nine, last night 4.2 percentage points.

The other major difference is that the uncertainty among voters continues to increase. Now it’s a full 15 percent of voters, compared to just over eleven percent on Friday, that does not have a clue about how to vote on Sunday. This corresponds to about 825 000 voters.

This means that mobilization is low and that the parties that manage to scare their voters from sofflocket have much to gain.

It also means that valspurten becomes a thriller. Almost anything can happen. But what happens, and if it happens, depends largely on the parties’ own efforts.

knocking on doors, telephone campaigns and election workers in the city becomes even more important now than they have been earlier in the campaign. Personal meetings have over the years become increasingly important.

The development is partly confirmed by TV4 / Novus published yesterday evening. Even in the halved the gap between the Alliance and the three parties on the left half. However, the proportion of undecided voters in the poll.

Since last Aftonbladet / United Minds, voters have had the opportunity to follow two duels between Fredrik Reinfeldt (M) and Stefan Löfven (S). On Friday, the Swedish Radio and Sunday in SVT.

Apparently, they were not impressed. The support of the Social Democrats will fall by 0.9 percentage points, while it is largely tranquil for the Conservatives, dropping 0.1 percent.

The reason why the alliance increases by 2.3 percentage points, is that the support for the other three parties is greater now than it was 76 hours earlier. Annie Loof looks to go from calculated a valvinnare.

The support for all three red-green parties decreases. Stefan Löfvens wishful government, a coalition between the Social Democrats and the Green Party, has in this measurement less support than an Alliance Government.

Although this measurement, the penultimate from Aftonbladet / United Minds before the election, confirms the impression that the election big loser in danger of becoming the Moderates and the Social Democrats.

The Conservatives because they seem to drop sharply many percentage points compared to last election when 30.1 percent of the voters put their votes Fredrik Reinfeldt’s party.

Social Democrats because they seem to end up on the same low level as in the 2010 election, it was the worst election result for the party since Sweden became a democracy 1921. But despite the party can get the chance to lead the next government. Contradictory but true.

How accurate is then the new measurement from Aftonbladet / United Minds? It can of course not knowing until afterwards. But the survey, which was published three days before the last parliamentary election overestimated support for the Alliance and for the Sweden Democrats, each with 1.4 points. Support for Red-Green was underestimated by 0.4 percentage points.