Thursday, February 9, 2017

Göran Eriksson: the Centre party is rushing in the new SvD/Sifo – highest figure in 26 years – the Swedish newspaper svenska Dagbladet

Centerpartiet has grown by over two percentage points since the Conservatives opened the door to The sweden democrats in the Swedish parliament and declared themselves will trap the government, with the SD’s support. Annie Lööf and the Centre party, said flatly no.

It is almost 30 years ago, the distance between the Centre party and the Swedish Conservatives were this small in a Sifomätning.

Photo: Donald Kallstrom

this is the measurement that Anna Kinberg Batra do not need.

The point that – at least in the short term – have the Conservatives gambit a new approach to The sweden democrats has been an own goal.

the SvD/Sifo has made an extra väljarbarometer to investigate the effects of the Conservatives positionsförändring, which led to the Alliance broke up in regeringsfrågan.

Measurement started just a few days after the M-move, and in the new väljarbarometern register with the Centre a statistically valid increase of 2.3 percentage points, compared with the ordinary väljarbarometern in January. The centre party may, 11.6 per cent in this measurement. It is the highest SvD/Sifo-figure of the party since the summer of 1990.

Photo: Donald Kallstrom

the Christian democratic party also increases significantly, but wind up with 3.9 per cent, still below the latch parliament.

In this poll – unlike in the January – Alliance is larger than the red and green, closing the gap is 1.9 percentage points. SD-critical voters have thus not – contrary to what the Socialists hoped – fled from the Alliance of blockgränsen.

the Conservatives decline is not statistically safe. But the party stops at 19.8 per cent and have not had this weak support in one measurement after the Alliance’s formation in the late summer of 2004 – at a meeting at the home of the Centerledaren Maud Olofsson in History.

It is worth noting that it was then the Moderates and the Centre party who were the engines in the bourgeois process of integration.

The new moderate party, moved towards the middle and the Centre party was on the way to the right – the rest is Swedish political samarbetshistoria.

In the present instead an intensifying power struggle between the two parties, and it has been played in public in recent weeks.

It was on Thursday, 19 January in the year of the M invited to the press conference with Anna Kinberg Batra, to talk about a few "Moderates priority issues".

Moderatledarens notice was that the party changed its mind, and now advocated that the Alliance should put forward a common budgetmotion as soon as possible.

It may not sound dramatic, but would make it possible for the SD to vote on the Alliance’s budgetmotion, just as in the autumn of 2014. Then it would have the support of a majority in the parliament, and thus would the government’s budget fall – and with it, in practice, the government Leaves.

so Far had the Christian democrats has been the only Alliansparti who advocated this, but now joined thus Moderates. Both parties are prepared to let a Alliansregering take over the government, even when the four bourgeois parties are smaller than the red and green.

neither the Liberals or the Centre party.

Photo: Donald Kallstrom

"Would the Alliance together with The sweden democrats in the current parliamentary mode trap the government we are giving the sweden democrats the opportunity to determine the agenda for how Sweden should be governed. It will not with the Centre to participate," wrote Annie Lööf in the SvD. And warned of political turmoil.

Anna Kinberg Batra took even a step on the where pressträffen when she declared that the Conservatives now wanted to "break the lock" with the SD in the riksdag, and can imagine to cooperate with the party in issues in the parliamentary committees. The line, she did not even bring KD.

There are several reasons to the Conservatives positionsförändringar – one of the most important is, of course, it opens up several possibilities for M to reach the government.

There has also been a pressure from below in the party – and many of the M-voters think it is right.

in Addition, M-management stressats of The centre party’s success in the public opinion, but also when voters assess party leaders. Annie Lööf enjoy higher confidence than Anna Kinberg Batra.

A side effect of the new line would – hoped M-management – be that the Centre party was challenged. It would be obvious for the voters to Annie Lööf not seriously – despite its harsh rhetoric – challenging the government Leaves. The moderate youth league, has summed up the message in a tweet: "In the Centre of Sweden controls the Stefan Löfven".

on Wednesday, wrote Anna Kinberg Batra, an op-ed piece with the title "M to that of the Alliance as soon as possible, a common budget". It looks like an attack on the government Löfven, but the target of course also an accusing finger against the Centre party and the Liberals.

It is possible that the effects as the Conservatives hope arise, in the longer term. Perhaps the growing pressure on the C and L to abandon the line that the SD should be isolated. Perhaps it is politically impossible for Annie Lööf – after a choice – contribute to Sweden is governed by social democrats, rather than Conservatives?

But the first few weeks after M took the big step is characterized by something else. The distance between C and M is now the 8.2 percentage points, and you get to make a time travel back to 1989 to find a Sifomätning where the Centre party was equal near.

Sweden was not in the EU, the Swedish economy was overheated, the unemployment rate was 1.5 per cent. Kjell-Olof Feldt was minister of finance in a crisis-ridden government. The öresund bridge was not built, Olof Johansson was Centerledare and Mona Sahlin, a political promise.

It was a different world, a different time.

But the Centre party has not been greater than the Conservatives since 1979, and the current M-management’s nervousness over the C’s success the last year, to an outsider perceived as excessive and verging on the comic.

this väljarbarometern suggests instead that nervousness may have been justified. Perhaps the Conservatives reasons to be afraid for the Centre?

Photo: Malin Hoelstad

see also

Annie Lööf plan: So should C be greater than M

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