The Moderates’ inner life is undergoing major changes and we are still waiting for crisp policy proposals. Of this, however, there is little in the opinion polls.
Before the Sifo poll in January, I was most excited about what could have happened with Moderates numbers. Since the last poll, December agreement replaced the extra choice and M have chosen Anna Kinberg Batra to the new leader. But we look at the opinion polls are small movements of M. In the September elections the party landed at 23.3 percent and near that figure has remained virtually the entire autumn. In January’s survey found the party at 24 percent.
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The Moderates public opinion evolution over time is exciting. During Fredrik Reinfeldt’s leadership the party goes from being an often marginalized right-wing party to a party that is perceived as more of a modern centrist. This despite the fact that in important areas of a traditional right-wing policies with large tax cuts and orderliness issues, in economics and school, high on the agenda.
The opinion polls went steadily up and doubled in Reinfeldt’s first three years party leader. At the 2006 election, he became prime minister. The positive trend slowed down until the financial crisis hit in 2008. It succeeds the duo Reinfeldt / M Borg establish that the party that keeps track of the public finances, a role that M has been difficult to shoulder. The 2010 election is radiant, M is equal to S and can seriously challenge the S to be the state bearing the party.
During the election campaign in 2014 draws Reinfeldt and the Alliance much on their government effectiveness and how prepared they are to lead Sweden further term. But voters want different. Already in February had the idea of tax cuts for new jobs reached the end and Anders Borg spoke of “wrapper” in politics. It also causes a shift in public opinion, where voters seem increasingly insecure about what the party actually stands for. The election in September will be a stinging defeat and shortly afterwards leaving both Reinfeldt and Borg policy. During the autumn, among others, Catharina Elmsäter Swords, Peter Norman and Kent Persson, left toppolitiken.
Now, a new gang that formed around the newly elected Anna Kinberg Batra and in the party eftervalsanalys have integration and welfare issues are highlighted. They need, according to the analysis, ‘other answers. ” This also applies to jobs, “we did not win the jobs issue.” How these responses should look like remains to be seen.
The interesting thing in the January Sifo measurement is that the party still seems to hold the fort. This is despite a heated debate about the December agreement and a sprawling discussion about integration and migration where municipal representatives do not always seem to go in step with the party leadership.
The success of M for Reinfeldt’s leadership has coincided with the Alliance. Now it’s shaky for several of the alliance siblings. KD tries to distinguish itself in the field of integration, while FP trying to present his features after a disastrous election results. How this land could determine the future of the Alliance. And Moderates.
FACT: MODERATE
In October 2003, elected Fredrik Reinfeldt to the new party chairman after Lundgren.
2005 launched New Moderates of the quartet, Fredrik Reinfeldt, Ulrica Schenström, Sven Otto Littorin and Minister Anders Borg.
Before the 2006 election, formed the Alliance takes home his election victory. M gets 26 percent.
The Alliance holds together and go to elections together in 2010 as M becomes equal to S, 30 percent.
Even before the 2014 election goes the Alliance jointly, but fail to win a third term. M gets 23 percent. Both Reinfeldt and Anders Borg leaving party politics.
At an extraordinary general meeting on January 10 elected Anna Kinberg Batra new chairman.
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