Tuesday, April 26, 2016

New miljardhål in the Swedish defense budget – Swedish Dagbladet

Defence Minister Peter Hultqvist (S) was on Tuesday called up to the parliamentary constitutional committee to answer questions about the Defence scrapping of a moving radar systems of some observers considered fully operational. Photo: Tomas Oneborg

About a year ago stepped Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson and Defence Minister Peter Hultqvist in to a joint press conference to present the government’s bid in defense negotiations with the alliance parties.

the level was then in six billion extra over five years. The deal finally gave another four billion, and was presented as a step on the road to ensure the defense’s future.

FOI report “Small armaments and organization for the money” gives the opposite picture, and alerts instead of a rapid decline of the defense do not get substantial funding increases.

Even now cost several billion observed on the materials side. At the same time provokes Russian warplanes of NATO övingar in the Baltic Sea. With the new report, the Swedish Defence Research Agency, FOI, sending “signals” to “policy makers”.



Photo: Alexander Rauscher

– the big problem is that there is a certain ignorance of politicians about how the economic realities looks. An increased awareness would be good. We try to help improve it, says Bernt Ostrom, one of the authors of the report on FOI to SvD.

FOI report shows what it calls “a major and growing pressure in supplies planning” . currently, it is handled by the “rolling stock needs ahead of it in time.” on average missing 3.1 billion each year, based on an estimated annual cost for the expected life of the system.

” the total pressure during the next twenty years would with årskvotsmetoden be evaluated to 62 billion. “

Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson together with Defence Minister Peter Hultqvist the defense negotiations last year. Photo: Tomas Oneborg

Svenska Dagbladet has previously reported that costs spiraling in a series of major equipment projects in the defense, compared with the law for the defense negotiations. One reason is that a weaker dollar is pushing up the price tag for the new E version of the JAS Gripen and the new super submarine A26 with five billion.

Although the planned modernization of the corvettes, and new anti-aircraft torpedo and missile system will be more expensive than it was intended. Archer artillery system is an urgent problem. Norway dropped out of the joint procurement already two years ago and since then stands 24 plays, without funding, the new billion kostander.

Meanwhile, the cost increases higher in the Armed Forces than in the rest of society under FOI. This must then be offset by defense spending every year is counted up by 3.5 per cent above inflation according to the consumer price index (CPI). Otherwise decreases the availability of all types of arms and equipment, and when it is not possible to retain as many employees in the defense. Now follows the appropriations increases, average inflation.



New E-version of the JAS Gripen will be more expensive than planned. Photo: Lars Pehrson

FOI writes:

“Policy-makers in government and Parliament should be aware of it is virtually impossible to maintain a stable material stock and the size of the operational organization of real unchanged appropriations which grows only in line with general inflation. “

– Each unit supplies will be much more expensive for each generation. If you maintain a volume of armaments and thus the volume of the operational organization over time and also keep up with technological developments and performance development, so it requires significantly more money and greater annual enumerations than what we have today, says Bernt Öström to SvD.

What else?

– in the end, it is interesting how the defense appropriations develop in different countries for the relative strength to the outside world. And it is clear that in a situation where Russia is increasing its defense spending significantly while we are still increasing their abilities faster. It is up to politicians to decide how much money to bet on defense and what defense you want in relation to the world.

the Ministry of Defence is working now with analyzes for the upcoming budget in the autumn. According to information provided to SvD’s Defense Minister Peter Hultqvist “very concerned” over the situation. The tight financial situation can end up with stock investments located in defending the settlement are postponed or stopped altogether.



Super submarine A26 can be more expensive. Photo: Kockums / Artist Impression

It’s no one who believes that Hultqvist will get some new billion of Treasury Magdalena Andersson to cover deficits when the costs of supplies pull away. Then the option to postpone or stop the planned orders, a source said to SvD.

The cost is also caused concern in the Treasury Department.

– There are no signals any equipment projects would be cheaper, the signals are contrary the other way. It has been a playhouse where everyone has tried to push as much as possible, and so little to some. If the finance minister starts to inject money without having control over the defense economy can quickly end up on a slippery slope, says an informant told SvD.

Several investigations will make proposals for defense materiel and arms purchases should be managed in the long term, and how responsibilities should be clarified between Armed Forces and FMV procurement and orders from the industry.

FOI report’s conclusion is already that it will require “difficult priorities” when deciding which weapons to be purchased.

What is it

the defense April 2015 gave the Armed Forces SEK 10.2 billion in increased funding over the period 2016-2020. Behind the deal are five of the eight parties in parliament: S, MP, M, C and KD.

The focus is to increase the operational capacity of the armed forces of Sweden. All military units should be exercised during the period. New weapons to be purchased. It also reduces the money to international efforts.

Even if the defense budget Now is raised, it means, however, that the defense share of GDP will fall below one percent. 2018 will be the share of 0.98 per cent and the years beyond 0.99 percent. In an international comparison is very low.

Average in other European countries is 1.5 percent. In the US the figure is 3.5 percent. Russia’s military spending amounts to about four percent of GDP.

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