Sweden the social democrats are the largest party in the GP/Sifo:s measurement for november. But should we care about the opinion polls? After Brexit, the united states-the election, and several other options seem not very reliable.
If it were the choice today, would the red-green bloc become the largest, the Christian democrats fall out of the parliament and less than 16 per cent would vote for The sweden democrats. In any case, if you think the Sifos measurement for november.
But as the outcome of the us elections indicates, we should be careful to interpret opinion polls as election results. It does not mean that it is pointless to try to measure public opinion. But there is a lot to think about for anyone who is taking part of the opinion polls.
1. Method of measurement
Different institutions use different ways to collect its substrate and to process the/folded it. The method is still considered to be the most reliable, and that Sifo use, is interviews with a random sample of the population of at least 1000 people. Then you have the opportunity to calculate both the loss and the margin of error.
a number of institutions use both the classic telephone interviews and web surveys. The important thing is that the selection is random. Some measurements are made with självrekryterade webbpaneler, which means you can sign up themselves and their friends. They are usually considered as the least reliable.
2. The dropout rate is increasing
Our changing telefonvanor makes it increasingly difficult to get responses from enough people. Several institutions mixes nowadays telephone interviews and web surveys. More and more respondents do not want to respond at all and some groups are difficult to reach. The synthesis, for example, in the measurement of SD in the 2014 election.
3. The electoral system affects the
IN the united states and the united kingdom is not the elections proportional, but the one that gets the most votes takes home the state or the constituency. It makes it all the more difficult to measure. In the presidential elections, Hillary Clinton, over a million more votes than Donald Trump, but still lost the White house.
4. It is the choice that apply
A measurement is always an estimate. Only the results of the election show how it really looks. For example, stödröstning, which has saved KD left in the parliament a number of options, is not visible in opinion polls.
in Spite of major events like the us elections is all the changes In the Sifomätningen for november within the margin of error compared with October. S is significantly the largest party, but falls well below its election result. In this measurement is the Conservatives roughly on his results from the 2014 election. If we compare with the results of the election have V, C, L and SD and S, MP, KD gone down. M stands still. The liberals went up slightly this measurement, but has in the past been worse.
this term has increasingly cemented the image of the three forces in the Swedish political landscape: the ruling coalition parties had agreed, the red-green block and so the SD. There is not much evidence to suggest that this is about to change.
It can also be seen on the partikanslierna that you are trying to find new ways to reach out. The conservatives failure of the week shows that there is a limit to what at least seven of the political parties in parliament think is a ok tone in the debate. After the dirty election campaign in the united states, many have started to talk about good manners and etiquette in social media and on the importance to distinguish between thing and person. At the same time, it is difficult to screw down the tone of the debate when social media, and even some traditional, heaping on with the click – and delningslockande invektiv.
political experts say that voters are more interested in the substance than the person or the spin. The wave of etablissemangskritik, including wearing the SD, may be on the way to smashing the old truths of the gospel, both for the väljarbeteenden and for how debate is conducted. But the polls will remain. We really want to try to see into the future.
Sifo: Three trends
M have problems in Stockholm
In the traditionally very strong M-mount Stockholm is the party only at 26 per cent. This means that M now is jämnstort in the three major cities.
S voters is over 50
S have a demographic problem. The party ushered a major period of getting older. In the group 65+ will reach S 34.8%. Looking at the figure for those who are over 50 years 32,1%, while only 23.6% of those under 50 years of age say they want to vote on the S.
C reaches young
C has, however, managed to renew and change their ushered a major period. The party runs best among voters who are under 30 years old. Where reach (C) 12 per cent. The old peasant is, moreover, is strongest among college-educated and has the highest number of voters in the big cities.
Statistics:
A change in relation to the previous measurement, to be outside of the statistical margin of error, at a range of 1 936 interviews to be
greater than: ±2.8 percentage points for the s, ±2.6 percentage points of the m, ±1.3 percentage points for the mp ±1.5 percentage points for l, ±1.6 percentage points for
v ±1.8 percentage points for the c, ±2.3 percentage points for the sd, ±1.2 percentage points for kd, ±0.9 percentage points for fi.
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