The most surprising in Statistics Sweden’s six-month measurement is that the Conservatives are clearly ahead while the government parties yesterday’s decline. Another trend is that the SD continues to attract voters and strengthen its vågmästarposition.
The most obvious trend in SCB’s majmätning is to the left wind that blew during the previous term of office has turned. It died down already in the choice and the result was a historically weak coalition government.
S and MP slopes are not particularly surprising. Government parties tend to have a sympathy dip at the beginning of the term. And this government has had to say the least shaky start.
After six months where the government does not first get through its own budget, and then breaks a number of campaign promises, it is urgently surprising that the two do not get even lower numbers. With its 30.3 percent withstand S shame border with a cry for help.
The third section on the left, V, goes ahead and is 0.8 percentage points above its election results. But the party in recent years has gone a bit up and down a bit, so it’s hard to know where it is going.
The Alliance is by 40.3 percent more than the government parties S and MP together landing at 36 7. Counting also the V of the Government of the substrate, however, the left side is still larger, nearly two percentage points different then blocks access.
M’s growth the big surprise
Within The alliance is primarily M increases and that is the big surprise in this measurement. The party gets 25.2 percent. Compared with the election in the fall, it is an increase of 1.9 percentage points. Given the tough boot Anna Kinberg Batra has had all debate on December agreement and different interests within the party is a good figure.
Otherwise, the C pleasing aspect of the Alliance. Party stabilizes at a slightly higher figure than it had in recent years. Annie Lööf has the last 1.5 years, managed to take his party from a sprawling and little-selectable options to the Alliance clearest voice.
FP note however, its lowest figure since 2001 in an SCB-examination. It teaches stoke the debate on party ledarbyte fall. KD’s development is of course also interesting. The new party leader Ebba Busch Thor does not seem to attract more voters without KD landing just under parliamentary latch.
SD strengthen its role
SD is now a clear third force in the Swedish political landscape and reinforces its role as a balance of power. Party leadership threatening to trap any government that does not reduce immigration can continue without problems, none of the blocks is even close to a majority.
The really interesting part of SCB’s survey presented on Monday. Then they digested the figures and we can see how it goes in different parts of the country. Because Statistics Sweden’s six-month measurements have such a large selection, more than 6,000 responses are included, they are especially exciting for both parties and for politically interested.
I will particularly look out for the progress of M, S and C in Gothenburg. Although the case of parliamentary parties usually are able to get a feel for how the parties are doing locally. Will the moderate fragmentation around Västlänken also appear in these numbers? How are weakened, but the rulers S? And it seems C climb in Gothenburg?
FACTS: Statistics May 2015
The Centre Party: 6.4 percent (+0 , 4);
The Liberal Party: 4.9 percent (-0.4)
The Moderates: 25.2, percent (+1.0)
Christian Democrats: 3.8 percent (+0.1)
The Social Democrats: 30 , 3 per cent (-1.9)
Left: 6.5 percent (+0.8 compared with SCB in November 2014)
Green Party: 6.4 percent (-0.8)
Sweden Democrats: 14.5 percent (+2.1)
Other 2.1 (-1.1)
12 091 voters have been asked which party they would vote for if parliamentary elections were held today. 6067 people responded. The survey was conducted via telephone interviews and web surveys.
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